Risk, Bankroll and Staying in the Game

This module is included with the course

Below is what every lesson argues, in its own words. The full text is about 3,745 words. One-time payment in USDT. No subscription.

1. Position sizing and fractional Kelly
   Over any period short enough to matter, how much you bet decides your outcome more than how accurately you predict. A beginner with a mediocre edge and a fixed sizing rule survives. A beginner with a good edge and conviction-based sizing does not.
2. Capital lockup and the cost of being early
   Money committed to a position is money unavailable for the next one, earning nothing while it waits. A correct trade that resolves in nine months is often worse than a marginal one that resolves in two weeks, and beginners systematically ignore this because the loss is invisible.
3. Correlation: when five positions are really one
   Diversification is about independence, not count. Five positions that all resolve on the same underlying fact are one position that you paid five sets of transaction costs to enter.
4. The journal, and scoring your own calibration
   The journal is the product of this entire course. Without a probability recorded before the trade, you can never separate skill from luck - not after ten trades, not after a thousand - and every conclusion you draw about yourself will be a story fitted to the outcome.

Buy the course - $49.99

Already bought it? Read it here