Read This Before You Deposit Anything

Lesson 0.1 - What this course promises, and what it doesn't

The claim: By the end of this course you will be able to trade a prediction market competently. You will not be able to reliably beat it. Those are different things, and the difference is the most useful thing you'll read today.

Why beginners get this wrong

Almost every free guide to prediction markets is written by someone who gets paid when you sign up. So the framing is always "here's how to profit." That framing sells, and it also sets you up to blow your first deposit inside three weeks, because it skips the part where you learn to lose slowly enough to learn anything.

The explanation

A prediction market is a zero-sum arena minus fees. For you to make a dollar, someone on the other side of your trade has to lose one. Some of those people are hobbyists. Some are professional traders with better information, faster execution and more capital than you. On any given market, you are one of those two groups.

The realistic path looks like this:

1. Months 1-2: You lose money slowly while learning the mechanics. This is tuition and it is unavoidable. Your goal is to make the tuition small.
2. Months 3-6: You approximately break even on most markets and start noticing which categories you're actually good at.
3. After that: Either you find a narrow area where you consistently know more than the market - a sport, a region, an industry, a data release you follow professionally - or you conclude you don't, and you stop. Both outcomes are wins. The loss is spending three years finding out.

What this course gives you is the machinery to survive step 1 and get an honest answer at step 3: how prices work, how to read a market before you touch it, how to size a position so a bad run doesn't end you, and how to score your own predictions so you find out whether you have an edge instead of guessing.

Worked example

Two beginners each start with $500.

Trader A reads a hype thread, puts $200 into one market at 0.70 because it "feels obvious," and loses it. He now has $300 and a story about how the market is rigged. He deposits again.

Trader B sizes every position at 2% of bankroll - $10 - logs her estimated probability before each trade, and places 40 trades over two months. She's down $60. But she has 40 data points, and her log shows she is well calibrated on economic data releases and terrible on anything involving celebrities. She stops trading celebrities.

Trader B lost less and learned something. That is what the first two months are supposed to look like.

Your turn

Write one sentence and keep it where you'll see it: "My goal for the next 60 days is to finish with a filled-in trade journal, not with a profit." You'll feel differently about this in week three. That's why you're writing it now.

Checkpoint

1. Where does the money you win come from?
2. What is the realistic goal of your first 60 days?
3. What's the difference between "this course will make me a good trader" and "this course will tell me whether I can be one"?

Answers for Lesson 0.1

1. From other traders, minus fees. Prediction markets are zero-sum before costs, negative-sum after.
2. A complete trade journal with your probability estimates logged, and a small loss.
3. The first is a promise no one can honestly make. The second is a testable process - and it's what you're buying here.

Lesson 0.2 - There are two Polymarkets. Know which one you're on.

The claim: "Polymarket" refers to two separate exchanges with different owners of record, different funding methods, different market lists and opposite legal status. Everything else in this course depends on knowing which one applies to you.

Why beginners get this wrong

Both are branded Polymarket. Both are run by the same founder. Search results, YouTube tutorials and Reddit threads mix them together constantly, so a beginner follows a guide about connecting a crypto wallet, hits a block screen, and assumes the platform is broken. It isn't. They were reading instructions for a venue they can't use.

The explanation

Polymarket Global - the original platform at polymarket.com. Crypto-native: you fund it with USDC on the Polygon network from a self-custodied wallet. No ID upload. Available in 100+ countries, with an explicit blocked list that has been growing as national gambling regulators act. This is the venue with the deepest liquidity and the widest range of markets - global politics, geopolitics, crypto, culture.

Polymarket US - a separate, CFTC-regulated exchange operated by QCX LLC, the entity Polymarket acquired in 2025 to get a lawful route back into the American market. It launched in December 2025. Full KYC: government ID, Social Security number, proof of residency, live selfie. Funded in US dollars, not crypto. Positions are fully collateralised - no margin, no leverage. The market list is more conservative than Global's, because the regulator imposes surveillance, reporting and product conditions.

The rule that follows:

If you are a US resident, Polymarket US is your venue. If you are not, Global is - provided your country isn't on the blocked list.

Two things that are not optional to understand:

VPNs are not a workaround. Using one to reach Global from a blocked country violates the terms of service, can get your account frozen and your funds stranded, and removes any recourse you'd otherwise have. There is no version of this that ends well and it is not worth the paragraph you'll read defending it somewhere else.

This picture is still moving. In April 2026 Polymarket filed with the CFTC seeking permission for US users to trade directly on the global exchange - that application was still pending as this lesson was written. Meanwhile the state-level fight is live: several states have challenged event-contract trading under gambling law, the CFTC has sued to defend federal preemption, and at least one state has criminalised operating a prediction market outright. Which markets you can access, and from where, may look different in six months.

That is exactly why the next lesson teaches you to verify your own status rather than trust this one.

Worked example

Marek is in Poland. He reads a guide about KYC and Social Security numbers, gets confused, and gives up. He was reading US instructions. His actual path is: get a wallet, bridge USDC to Polygon, connect, trade - assuming Poland isn't on the restricted list on the day he checks.

Dana is in Texas. She reads a guide about connecting MetaMask, tries polymarket.com, and hits a block screen. Her actual path is: sign up at the Polymarket US venue, pass KYC, fund in dollars.

Same brand. Nothing else in common.

Your turn

Write down, in one line: which venue applies to you, and why. You'll verify it in the next lesson.

Checkpoint

1. What funds an account on Global? What funds one on Polymarket US?
2. A US resident wants access to a market that only exists on Global. What are their options?
3. Why can't this course simply tell you your legal status?

Answers for Lesson 0.2

1. Global: USDC on Polygon, from a self-custodied wallet, no ID. US: US dollars, after full KYC.
2. Wait for the rules to change, or trade a comparable market on a regulated US venue. Not a VPN.
3. Because it changes - by country, by state, and by month - and because a course page is not a legal advisor. You verify at the source, every time you're unsure.

Lesson 0.3 - Verify your own status in five minutes

The claim: You can establish your own eligibility from primary sources, without trusting any guide, in about five minutes. Do this before you deposit, and again any time you've been away for a few months.

Why beginners get this wrong

They search "is Polymarket legal in [country]" and read the first affiliate blog, which is optimised for ranking rather than accuracy and may be eighteen months stale. Several of the highest-ranking pages on this exact question currently contradict each other.

The explanation

The check, in order:

Step 1 - Go to the source, not a guide. Open the platform's own terms of service and restricted-jurisdiction list. This is the only document that governs whether your account gets frozen, and it's the one the platform actually enforces against.

Step 2 - Try to register, honestly. Enter your real country and, in the US, your real state. The platform enforces eligibility at signup. If you're blocked, you'll know in thirty seconds, and you'll have lost nothing. Do not enter a false country to get past the gate - that's the same trap as a VPN, with your deposit behind it.

Step 3 - Check your national or state regulator, if the answer was ambiguous. For US residents this means state-level gaming regulation, which is currently unsettled and being litigated. For other countries, your national gambling or financial regulator. You're looking for one thing: has a regulator publicly restricted this category?

Step 4 - Note the date. Write down the date you checked, in your trade journal. That's the piece everyone skips and it's the one that matters, because it tells future-you when the answer expired.

Step 5 - Understand your tax position before you profit, not after. Depending on your jurisdiction, event-contract gains may be treated as capital gains, gambling income, or ordinary income, and a regulated venue will report to the tax authority. Find out which applies to you now, while the number is small and the question is theoretical.

Worked example

You check in August and confirm you're eligible. You write "eligibility checked: 3 Aug 2026, source: platform ToS + registration flow" in the top of your journal. In February you notice a headline about a regulator in your country. You look at your note, see it's six months old, and re-run the five-minute check instead of guessing. Total cost: five minutes, twice a year.

Your turn

Run all five steps now. Record the date and what you found. Do not proceed to Module 1 with an unresolved answer at step 2 - if you can't register, the rest of this course is theory for you until that changes.

Checkpoint

1. Which document actually determines whether your account can be frozen?
2. Why record the date of your check?
3. What should you do if you can't get past the registration gate?

Answers for Lesson 0.3

1. The platform's own terms of service and restricted-jurisdiction list.
2. Because eligibility changes. A dated note tells you when your answer went stale; an undated memory doesn't.
3. Stop. Don't falsify your location and don't use a VPN. Either wait for the rules to change or use a venue that's lawfully available to you.

Lesson 0.4 - Decide what you're allowed to lose

The claim: Before you fund anything, you set a total figure you are willing to lose entirely, and you write it down. Every sizing rule in Module 4 is a percentage of that number.

Why beginners get this wrong

They fund with "some money" and top up when it runs low. Because there's no defined total, there's no defined loss - so there's never a moment where they're forced to notice the aggregate. People who top up three times have usually never added up the three.

The explanation

Three rules, and they're not negotiable if you want the rest of this course to work:

1. It is money you can lose completely without changing anything about your life. Not rent, not an emergency fund, not borrowed. The test isn't "would losing this hurt" - it's "would losing this change a decision I have to make in the next twelve months."

2. It is a fixed total, decided once. Write the number down. If it's gone, you're done for the period - not topped up. Topping up mid-drawdown is the single most reliable way to turn a $200 education into a $2,000 one, because it always happens at the exact moment your judgement is worst.

3. It is sized so that 2% of it is a tradeable amount. Module 4 will have you risking 1-2% per position. If your bankroll is $50, a 2% position is $1, which is too small to place meaningfully on most markets. If you can't comfortably set aside enough for 2% to be a real position, the honest answer is to wait until you can - not to size up.

For most people starting out, somewhere between $200 and $1,000 satisfies all three. The right number is personal. The requirement that it be written down is not.

Worked example

You set a bankroll of $400. That makes your standard position $8 (2%). Over two months you place 45 trades and end at $355. You've spent $45 - less than a decent dinner - to generate 45 logged predictions about your own accuracy. That is a good outcome, and you knew it was a good outcome in advance because you defined the number before you started.

The alternative version: you fund $100, lose it in a week, top up $150, lose that, top up $200. You're down $450, you have no journal, and at no point did you make a decision - you just reacted four times.

Your turn

Write two numbers at the top of your trade journal:

• Bankroll: the total you're prepared to lose.
• Standard position size: 2% of it.

Then note the date you'll review both - 90 days out.

Checkpoint

1. Why is a fixed total better than topping up as you go?
2. What's the test for whether money qualifies?
3. What's the relationship between your bankroll and your position size?

Answers for Lesson 0.4

1. Because it forces the aggregate loss into view and removes the mid-drawdown decision, which is always made at your worst moment.
2. Losing it completely wouldn't change any decision you have to make in the next twelve months.
3. Position size is a fixed percentage - 1-2% - of the bankroll, so the bankroll determines every trade you place.

Next: Module 1 - What You're Actually Trading.

Regulatory details in this module were verified in August 2026 and change frequently. Lesson 0.3 teaches you to re-verify from source; use it rather than relying on this page.